Résumé
The spillover of a virus from an animal reservoir to humans requires both molecular and ecological risk factors to align. While extensive research both before and after the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 implicates horseshoe bats as the significant animal reservoir for the new human coronavirus, it remains unclear why it emerged at this time. One massive disruption to animal-human contacts in 2019 is linked to the on-going African swine fever virus (ASFV) pandemic. Pork is the major meat source in the Chinese diet. We hypothesize that the dramatic shortage of pork following large-scale culling and restrictions of pig movement (resulting in marked price increases) led to alternative sources of meat and unusual animal and meat movements nationwide, e.g., involving wildlife, and thus greatly increased opportunities for human-sarbecovirus contacts. Pork prices were particularly high in southern provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Hubei), where wildlife is farmed and more frequently consumed. Major wildlife farming provinces are spread from Northern to Southern China, which overlaps with horseshoe bat host ranges, potential hosts of the proximal SARS-CoV-2 ancestor, and wildlife sourcing provinces of Wuhan Huanan market and possibly other markets. Trading of SARS-CoV-2 susceptible wildlife in these markets, such as minks, raccoon dogs, foxes and palm civets in Wuhan markets, could have increased the risk of SARS-CoV-2 from an intermediary host. Moreover, large quantities of animals raised for fur could have entered the human food chain undetected and significantly increased risks of animal-human contact. Performing retrospective testing of stored susceptible animals and their meat sold before December 2019 may be helpful in the next stage of tracing the animal origin of SARS-CoV-2 as spillover events are more likely to have taken place in 2019 when China was experiencing the worst effects of the ASFV pandemic.
Résumé
The lack of an identifiable intermediate host species for the proximal animal ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 and the distance (~1500 km) from Wuhan to Yunnan province, where the closest evolutionary related coronaviruses circulating in horseshoe bats have been identified, is fueling speculation on the natural origins of SARS-CoV-2. Here we analyse SARS-CoV-2's related horseshoe bat and pangolin Sarbecoviruses and confirm Rhinolophus affinis continues to be the likely reservoir species as its host range extends across Central and Southern China. This would explain the bat Sarbecovirus recombinants in the West and East China, trafficked pangolin infections and bat Sarbecovirus recombinants linked to Southern China. Recent ecological disturbances as a result of changes in meat consumption could then explain SARS-CoV-2 transmission to humans through direct or indirect contact with the reservoir wildlife, and subsequent emergence towards Hubei in Central China. The only way, however, of finding the animal progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 as well as the whereabouts of its close relatives, very likely capable of posing a similar threat of emergence in the human population and other animals, will be by increasing the intensity of our sampling.